The Earnings Function: A Glimpse Inside the Black Box

This paper studies the wage determination process for a group of managerial employees in a major U.S. airline. As would be expected, those with greater-than-average schooling, pre-company labor market experience, and company service receive greater-than-average earnings. The analysis also addresses the question of whether or not the managers within a grade level who are paid more receive higher performance ratings by their supervisors. The answer is "no" in the case of those with more pre-company labor market experience (i.e., those who are older) and with more company service. This suggests that the salaries received by managers within a grade reflect their age and tenure with the company more than their present performance.

U.S. Labor Markets: Imbalance, Wage Growth, and Productivity in the 1970s

macroeconomics, labor market, wage growth, 1970s

Length of Service and the Operation of Internal Labor Markets

This paper presents a summary of the evidence which has recently been collected concerning the role of length of service in the operation of internal labor markets. It argues that these data are inconsistent with the human capital model of the experience-earnings and experience-layoff relationships. The paper concludes by asserting that if we are ever to fully understand the role of service, newdata are needed.

Labor's Capital, Business Confidence, And the Market for Loanable Funds

The market for loanable funds provides a useful framework for determining changes in investment and interest rates. In the United States, a significant source of supply originates from labor in the form of pension assets. However, despite the increased contribution by labor to the supply curve over the past several decades, levels of investment have remained less than robust. Here, we highlight the changes in the demand curve for loanable funds in order to explain the empirical trends. Data series provided by the Conference Board capture the confidence of U. S. business and thus provide a gauge of Keynes’ “animal spirits”—an essential factor in the demand curve shifts. Correlation of the data series with both quarterly changes in real interest rates and quarterly changes in payroll employment offers documentation for these macroeconomic claims.

Years of Service and Probability of Promotion

This study provides evidence which we believe challenges some conventional assumptions about the promotion process. Based on survey information collected from a large random sample of U.S. private sector firms, we reach two main conclusions. First,seniority independent of productivity appears to play a significant role even in nonunion promotion decisions. Second, the differences between union and nonunion promotion processes, at least with regard to the weight assigned to seniority per se, appear to be important but less dramatic than is popularly supposed.

Involuntary Terminations under Explicit and Implicit Employment Contracts

This study investigates where and when last-in-first-out permanent layoff policies seem to go hand in hand with compensation policies under which the net value of senior workers appears to be less than that of their junior peers. The investigation relies upon both the approximately 260 usable responses to a survey we mailed out to a sample of U.S. firms and microdata from the computerized personnel files of a major U.S. corporation. Our findings for U.S. companies outside of agriculture and construction lead us to the following three conclusions: (1) For most employees, it appears that protection against job loss grows with seniority, although net value to the firm does not.(2) While a very sizeable percentage of nonunion workers may be covered by implicit employment contracts which give more protection against termination to those with more seniority, a much higher percentage of workers covered by collective bargaining agreements seem to enjoy such protection; and (3) The job protection afforded senior nonunion personnel, especially exempt employees, appears to be less strong than that provided to union members.

Experience, Performance, and Earnings

This study provides direct evidence concerning the relationship between experience and performance among managerial and professional employees doing similar work in two major U. S. corporations. The facts presented indicate that while, within grade levels, there is a strong positive association between experience and relative earnings, there is either no association or a negative association between experience and relative rated performance. If we are correct that the performance ratings given to managerial and professional employees in any grade level adequately reflect those employees' relative productivity in the year of assessment, the results imply that the human capital on-the-job training model cannot explain a substantial part of the ob-served return to labor market experience.

Length of Service, Terminations and the Nature of the Employment Relationship

This paper presents new survey evidence that relative protection against job loss grows with length of service, independent of their net value to the firm. This protection makes good sense given that at most companies employees appear to earn less than their value marginal product in the early part of their tenure and more than their value marginal product in the latter part; without job protection policies for senior employees, the firm would have an incentive to terminate them when their "spot" earnings went above their "spot" value marginal product. In particular, we find that a very large percentage (over 95 percent) of hourly union members outside of agriculture and construction are covered by protective policies for senior workers and, that a somewhat smaller, but still substantial, percentage (about 85 percent) of comparable nonunion hourlies also have some protection against jobloss in their senior years. The potential reasons for these findings are briefly discussed.